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Upcoming U.S. Threatens to Increase Softwood Lumber Duties on Canada

Category: 🌲Lumber
Scope: National Policy
Origin: US
Target: Canada

Effective: August 01, 2025

Est. Cost: Estimated 1.6 billion Canadian dollars annually in lost exports and legal costs

Impacted Jobs: 8500 - Canadian forestry sector sees reduced revenues, mill slowdowns, and job cuts

Description:

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced plans to raise anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber from an average of 7.66% to approximately 34%. The move, expected to take effect by August 2025, reignites a long-standing trade dispute and has drawn strong opposition from Canadian officials and provincial governments.
Impacts:
  • Increased duties on Canadian softwood lumber exports to the U.S.
  • Higher housing and construction costs in the U.S.
  • Strained cross-border forestry relations; repeated trade disputes
Analysis:

The revival of softwood lumber duties is a familiar flashpoint in Canada–U.S. trade, hurting both sides. It disproportionately affects rural Canadian communities while driving up U.S. housing costs. Though politically useful in some U.S. regions, its net effect is economic inefficiency and bilateral tension.

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