Maple Alert
Tracking Canada-US Trade Actions
Maple Alert
Tracking Canada-US Trade Actions
Effective: August 01, 2025
Description: The U.S. Department of Commerce announced plans to raise anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber from an average of 7.66% to approximately 34%. The move, expected to take effect by August 2025, reignites a long-standing trade dispute and has drawn strong opposition from Canadian officials and provincial governments.
Analysis:The revival of softwood lumber duties is a familiar flashpoint in Canada–U.S. trade, hurting both sides. It disproportionately affects rural Canadian communities while driving up U.S. housing costs. Though politically useful in some U.S. regions, its net effect is economic inefficiency and bilateral tension.
Effective: April 03, 2025
Description: A 25% tariff on all imported cars, SUVs, light trucks, and automotive parts from Canada (and other countries), effective April 2025. This long-threatened auto tariff was positioned as part of Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" program and went into force on April 3, 2025, dramatically raising the cost of Canadian-made vehicles in the U.S. market. Major automakers warned of price hikes and job impacts in the U.S.
Analysis:The U.S. 25% auto tariff backfires by increasing costs for consumers and slashing demand, ultimately harming the very workers it's supposed to help. It also triggers harsh retaliation, leading to widespread job losses on both sides of the border.
Effective: March 12, 2025
Description: Re-imposition of 25% tariffs on all Canadian steel and aluminum exports to the U.S., effective March 12, 2025. This ended prior quota exemptions, meaning Canadian metal exports once again face full duties. Announced as part of Trump's broader global metals tariffs under national security, with no country exemptions.
Analysis:The U.S. metals tariff offers narrow benefits to steelmakers at the expense of a larger manufacturing base. The result is net job loss and higher costs to U.S. consumers and industries. For Canada, it’s a major economic blow, triggering large-scale retaliation and intensifying trade tensions.
Effective: March 11, 2025
Description: A short-lived threat to double U.S. tariffs on Canadian steel and aluminum from 25% to 50%. Announced by President Trump via social media on March 11, 2025 amid escalating tensions, it was reversed within hours after Canada's Ontario province threatened counter-actions (an electricity surcharge). The White House confirmed that the increase would not proceed, sticking to the 25% metals tariff.
Analysis:This aggressive escalation of U.S. metal tariffs targets Canada directly, undermining integrated supply chains. While it may benefit a narrow segment of U.S. primary metal producers, the broader cost to U.S. industry and consumers is steep. Canada absorbs another export hit, reinforcing its need to diversify trade partners.
Effective: March 04, 2025
Description: 25% tariff on nearly all imports from Canada (imposed under a national emergency citing illegal immigration and fentanyl), with a reduced 10% rate on Canadian energy. Announced February 1 and initially postponed by 30 days, it took effect March 4. A later adjustment exempted goods that qualify under USMCA rules of origin.
Analysis:This sweeping tariff action represents the most extreme protectionist measure in decades. Its intent to restore domestic production is overwhelmed by massive inflation, retaliation, and job losses. While politically dramatic, the policy is broadly viewed as economically disastrous and unsustainable.
Effective: April 09, 2025
Description: The Government of British Columbia has suspended all non-critical procurement contracts with U.S.-based companies. This decision, announced by Premier David Eby, is a direct response to recent U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. The measure is aimed at protecting local industries and sending a strong message to the U.S. administration about the consequences of its trade aggression.
Analysis:British Columbia's procurement suspension marks a calculated escalation in Canada’s trade response. While narrow in economic scope, it holds symbolic weight and may contribute to coordinated provincial pressure on U.S. policy makers. Its primary value lies in signaling domestic political unity and protecting government procurement from being used against Canadian interests.
Effective: April 09, 2025
Description: Canadian counter-tariff targeting U.S. automobiles that don't meet USMCA content rules. On April 3, 2025, Prime Minister Mark Carney announced a 25% import duty on all vehicles from the U.S. that are non-compliant with the terms of the USMCA trade deal. This became effective on April 9, 2025.
The tariffs will be 25 per cent on the portion of each vehicle imported from the U.S. that did not originate in Canada or Mexico, the manufacturing of which complies with the rules under the United States Mexico Canada Agreement (USMCA). It will also be 25 per cent on each vehicle imported from the U.S. where the automobile’s manufacturing does not comply with USMCA rules.
This measure is designed to mirror U.S. protectionism and pressure American automakers, while sparing vehicles that adhere to North American content requirements.
Analysis:This targeted Canadian auto tariff raises the cost of non-compliant U.S. vehicles. It is symbolically powerful and protects Canada's auto industry while pressuring U.S. automakers. Its effectiveness is moderate as it avoids major domestic economic damage while retaliating precisely.
Effective: April 07, 2025
Description: Canada has launched a formal dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO) challenging the United States' recent 25% tariff on Canadian autos. The federal government argues the tariffs violate international trade rules and threaten integrated North American automotive supply chains.
Analysis:By initiating WTO proceedings, Canada escalates the legal pressure on the US to roll back its 25% auto tariffs. This move is procedural but significant, reinforcing Canada's trade posture and commitment to multilateralism. While outcomes may take months, it adds diplomatic weight to Canada's case.
Effective: March 25, 2025
Description: The Canadian government announced it has frozen all outstanding EV rebate payments to Tesla and barred the company from future eligibility under federal clean vehicle programs. The move comes as part of a growing trade standoff with the United States and aims to push back against what officials described as hostile trade actions.
Analysis:Canada's freeze of EV rebates for Tesla is a symbolic but relatively low-cost move that favors domestic or non-U.S. EV manufacturers. It doesn't cause major job losses but sends a political message during trade tensions. Its economic footprint is modest, but it targets a high-visibility U.S. brand, amplifying its retaliatory effect.
Effective: March 13, 2025
Description: Second round of Canadian counter-tariffs: 25% duties on an additional C$29.8 billion of U.S. goods. Primarily targeted U.S. steel (C$12.6 B) and aluminum (C$3 B) exports to Canada, plus other products (C$14.2 B worth) such as cast iron articles, machinery (e.g. computers), and sporting equipment. These took effect March 13, 2025.
Analysis:This countermeasure hits the U.S. metal industry hard while propping up Canadian production. Though it raises costs for Canadian manufacturers, it reflects a strategic retaliation pattern and is impactful due to the U.S.'s dependency on the Canadian market. Its scope is narrow but deep, targeting core trade vulnerabilities.
Effective: TBD
Description: Ontario's threatened 25% surcharge on electricity exports to the United States. On March 11, 2025, Premier Doug Ford warned he would levy this surcharge on power sent to over 1 million U.S. homes (e.g. in NY, MI, MN) unless all U.S. tariffs against Canada were dropped. The plan was suspended after President Trump reversed the 50% metal tariff hike later that day.
Analysis:Ontario’s electricity surcharge introduces targeted friction in a key cross-border commodity. It nudges procurement toward Canadian sources without banning imports outright. The measure is economically modest but symbolically significant, signaling long-term realignment of energy trade flows.
Effective: TBD
Description: Proposed Ontario export restrictions on high-grade nickel destined for the U.S. Premier Ford stated on Mar 11, 2025 that he would work with Canada's federal government to curb exports of Ontario's nickel - which accounts for ~50% of U.S. supply - if trade hostilities worsened. Options mentioned included stockpiling nickel or redirecting it to other markets.
Analysis:While not an enacted ban, Ontario’s threat to restrict nickel exports is a powerful strategic signal. It highlights Canada's leverage in critical minerals essential to U.S. manufacturing and clean energy goals. Its value lies in deterrence and negotiation strength, rather than immediate economic disruption.
Effective: March 10, 2025
Description: The BC government removed all American-made beer, wine and spirits from its liquor stores and distributors as a retaliatory boycott. BC Premier David Eby originally ordered the removal of alcohol only from Republican "red-states" such as Kentucky, but days later followed up with a ban on all American-made liquors. Private retailers are able to sell off their remaining product.
Analysis:This import ban from British Columbia mirrors Alberta's in scope but affects a larger market. It reinforces Canada's retaliatory posture with minimal local job losses, while pressuring U.S. exporters directly. Though the impact is manageable economically, the measure strengthens the broader Canadian response strategy.
Effective: March 06, 2025
Description: Alberta Gaming, Liquor and Cannabis (AGLC) has halted all new purchases of U.S.-made alcoholic beverages effective March 6, 2025, in response to U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods. Retailers may sell through existing inventory but cannot place new orders.
Analysis:Alberta’s ban on U.S. alcohol imports is a sharp but narrow measure with high symbolic value and limited economic fallout. It supports domestic and alternate foreign suppliers while penalizing U.S. firms with direct visibility to the public. The measure is effective as political signaling, but the material economic effects are relatively small.
Effective: March 06, 2025
Description: Following federal encouragement and rising trade tensions, a national 'Buy Canadian' movement gained momentum. Canadians are increasingly choosing domestic products over American imports, with campaigns promoting Canadian food, apparel, and manufactured goods.
Analysis:This initiative is soft power retaliation—non-tariff, low-cost, and high on optics. By nudging consumer behavior rather than mandating bans, it sustains goodwill while subtly shifting trade flows. While economic impact is modest, it effectively bolsters Canadian industry sentiment and public engagement.
Effective: March 06, 2025
Description: Prime Minister Justin Trudeau publicly encouraged Canadians to reconsider non-essential travel to the United States, citing concerns about growing trade tensions and potential hostility at the border. The statement led to a widespread informal boycott of U.S. travel and tourism spending by Canadian citizens.
Analysis:As a public guidance campaign, this boycott leverages national sentiment to redirect economic flows without legislation. Its broad scope and voluntary nature reduce political risk, while the economic effect—especially on U.S. border economies— is sharp. Though hard to sustain long-term, it’s impactful during peak periods and bolsters domestic tourism.
Effective: March 05, 2025
Description: Removal of U.S.-made alcoholic beverages from the Ontario government's liquor stores (LCBO) as a retaliatory boycott. Premier Ford ordered the Liquor Control Board of Ontario to pull all American wines, beers and spirits from shelves starting March 4-5, 2025. This ban on U.S. alcohol sales in Ontario's public retail outlets remains in effect, aiming to pressure U.S. industries and garner American attention to the trade dispute.
Analysis:As Canada's largest provincial market, Ontario’s ban sends a strong economic and symbolic message. It materially affects U.S. producers and magnifies pressure through scale. While substitution is possible, the visibility and impact of this action make it one of the most potent regional measures in the broader trade response.
Effective: March 04, 2025
Description: Initial Canadian counter-tariffs: 25% surtaxes on a selection of U.S. imports worth C$30 billion, including orange juice, peanut butter, alcohol (wine/beer/spirits), coffee, appliances, motorcycles and other goods. Announced by then-PM Justin Trudeau as a dollar-for-dollar retaliation, these took effect March 4, 2025.
Analysis:This first wave of retaliatory tariffs mirrored previous U.S. actions and focused on high-visibility goods to maximize political impact. It imposed limited economic strain on Canada while strategically pressuring U.S. industries with political influence. The tactic is familiar, effective for messaging, and avoids critical supply chain disruption.
Effective: March 04, 2025
Description: Premier Susan Holt ordered NB Liquor to immediately stop purchasing and selling U.S.-made wines, spirits, and beer in response to U.S. tariffs. The order applies to future inventory, though existing stock may be sold through.
Analysis:New Brunswick’s ban on U.S. alcohol is a small but consistent extension of Canada’s regional retaliation strategy. It delivers a modest economic signal while aligning with actions in other provinces. Its limited scale is balanced by high symbolic visibility in a tightly regulated retail environment.
Effective: March 04, 2025
Description: Newfoundland and Labrador Premier Andrew Furey announced the removal of all U.S.-produced wine, spirits, and beer from liquor store shelves across the province, effective March 4, 2025, in protest of escalating U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods.
Analysis:Newfoundland and Labrador's ban is low-cost and low-risk, consistent with Canada’s broader alcohol-focused countermeasures. It signals national unity in trade retaliation without disrupting essential supply chains or provoking domestic backlash. Its effectiveness lies in amplifying collective pressure on U.S. producers across multiple jurisdictions.
Effective: March 04, 2025
Description: Nova Scotia directed the NSLC to remove all U.S.-produced wines, beers, and spirits from shelves by March 4, 2025, in retaliation against new U.S. tariffs. The measure applies to new inventory and supplier contracts.
Analysis:Nova Scotia’s ban fits the template of provincial solidarity in Canada’s trade response strategy. Though limited in dollar terms, it sends a coherent national message and creates modest economic consequences for niche U.S. exporters. Its domestic impact is minimal, making it politically and economically sustainable.
Effective: March 04, 2025
Description: Cancellation of Ontario's $100 million contract with SpaceX's Starlink (Elon Musk's satellite internet service). Premier Doug Ford announced on Mar 4, 2025 that the province is "ripping up" the Starlink deal in retaliation for U.S. tariffs. The contract, meant to connect 15,000 rural homes by 2025, was terminated and will not be reinstated even if U.S. tariffs are lifted.
Analysis:Ontario’s ban on Starlink is a rare digital infrastructure retaliation that targets a high-profile U.S. tech company. It disrupts rural internet access short-term but aligns with a broader nationalistic push to support Canadian providers. While the move is politically charged, it also raises concerns about service gaps and consumer choice in underserved regions.
Effective: March 04, 2025
Description: Province-wide exclusion of U.S.-based companies from Ontario government procurement. Announced Mar 4, 2025, this policy halts any new contracts with firms "who enable or encourage economic attacks" on Canada. Ontario (which spends ~$30 billion annually on goods and services) will not award contracts to U.S. vendors until U.S. tariffs are lifted. All ministries and agencies were directed to review and terminate deals with U.S. suppliers where possible.
Analysis:Ontario’s procurement ban is one of the most economically significant retaliatory measures. It aligns with Buy Canadian sentiment while directly penalizing U.S. firms that benefit from Canadian public spending. Though it may create some short-term inefficiencies, its strategic value lies in pressuring U.S. stakeholders with real economic loss.
Effective: March 04, 2025
Description: The PEI government directed the Liquor Control Commission to immediately remove all U.S.-made wines, spirits, and beer from its shelves and online catalogue as part of coordinated provincial retaliation against U.S. trade actions.
Analysis:PEI’s ban on U.S. alcohol is symbolically aligned with national efforts, though economically minor. It reinforces coordinated provincial action without meaningful disruption to supply or employment. Its strategic value lies in showing unity and escalating visibility of retaliation measures.
Effective: March 04, 2025
Description: Quebec Premier François Legault directed the Société des alcools du Québec (SAQ) to suspend the supply of American alcoholic beverages to stores, bars, and restaurants as part of the province’s retaliation against U.S. trade measures.
Analysis:Quebec’s alcohol import ban delivers both economic and cultural impact. It aligns with a broader Canadian retaliation strategy while reinforcing provincial pride in local and French alternatives. Its market size gives it more weight than other provinces, making it one of the more effective symbolic trade responses.